What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?
What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For? You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below): And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect. Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there. What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May. And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward. Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says: “Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.” Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says: “The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.” As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move? Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality. Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know. Bottom Line If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market. Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there.
2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect
2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect Looking ahead to 2025, it's important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you're thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans. Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025. Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below): Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says: “With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.” Expect More Homes To Sell The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year. According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below): That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year. While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them. Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below): On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market. Bottom Line Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you're buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.